MTG_Epic Confrontation Short

With the final bid for the painting now in hand, we can finally announce a winner for Wayne Reynolds’ Epic Confrontation Auction Guessing Game.

First, let’s take a look at the result of the auction:

A very strong result for a very strong painting.  

This is the second Guessing Game ever on OMA and it’s great to see another excellent showing with 171 guesses submitted for this contest.

With that settled, it’s time to announce the winner!

Tim Murray with a guess of $2,714

Congratulations to the winner of this Guessing Game!  

Wayne should have already reached out to you by now, so check your email if you haven’t already.  Make sure to share a picture of you and your winnings on the Original Magic Art Facebook page.

Sadly, no one guessed the exact closing bid of the auction to win the secondary prize.  Never fear, the Artist Proofs from the OMA Collection will be saved for the next Guessing Game.

To get a better idea of the guesses sent in for this contest, I again handed over the data to resident OMA statistician, Ryan Sittler, to crunch the numbers and see what he could uncover.

OMA Statistician Report

As usual, I ran the data through SPSS, basically the most hardcore tool around for data analysis, to get a basic analysis completed.

Since we were able to identify collectors of Magic art vs. non-collectors we could finally put my hunch from the last Guessing Game to the test.

First, the data:

Standard Calcs

All Guesses Graph

As with any data set, we need to identify the outliers of the sample set and remove them to generate a strong analysis.

In this case, we identified 30 such aberrations in the data set and ran the information through SPSS again after excluding them.


Final Stat Info

ANOVA Summary


All Guesses Outliers Removed

There’s an inherent problem in the data collection this time. I saw comments from some folks that they thought they were supposed to enter their guess in USD and others thought they were to enter their guess in GBP. Since the winning bid was £1,837.00 ($2738.50) – and there was discrepancy in how people responded – the data may be invalid.

Keeping that in mind, for the purposes of having something to discuss, let’s look at it both ways.

If the entries were in GBP:

The collectors got closest in all cases. They still overshot the final selling price by a good bit, though. If the entries were indeed intended to be GBP, everyone went too high regardless of group.

If the entries were in USD:

The collectors got smoked by the non-collectors. Before removing the outliers, the non-collectors got within about $35 of the selling price. The collectors undershot by $400+. After removing outliers, non-collectors got within $240 of the price but underestimated. Collectors, on the other hand, underestimated by about $550 when removing outliers.

Final Thoughts:

Non-collectors win this round – and by a pretty convincing margin. Contrast this to the last guessing game, where the collectors did a little bit better than non-collectors… and it’s reinforcing my belief (following the last analysis) that collectors aren’t much better at estimating selling prices (if at all) than non-collectors. Certainly, they didn’t fare well in this case.

If we knew that all entries were consistently in USD or GBP, I’d call this a landslide for the non-collectors. But since we don’t know that… it’s a tainted victory. 😉

Lessons Learned & The Next Guessing Game

It appears that there may have been some confusion on this Guessing Game and, if so, I want to apologize.  Currency conversion will be factored into and announced for any future Guessing Games run here on OMA.  These are meant to be a fun way to help out artists and promote their auctions and I aim to keep it that way with some updates to the rules.

Speaking of upcoming Guessing Games, I already have two more lined up.

Guy Coulson, agent and friend of John Avon, is working with David O’Connor to auction off the original paintings for Mystical Tutor and Undiscovered Paradise.

The pieces will be sold via Facebook auction, that is the current plan at least, and you can read the announcement here.

To help promote the auctions and add a bit of excitement, Guy agreed to partner with OMA to run Guessing Games for each of the auctions.

Prizes are still being determined, but this is an exciting development and I am so glad to be working with Guy and David.

mystical-tutor-450 Undiscovered Paradise

Stay tuned and look forward to the next Auction Guessing Game here on OMA.